|
Contemporary Fertility Levels and Trends in South Africa: Evidence from |
|
Reconstructed Census Birth Histories |
|
|
|
Amson Sibanda and Tukufu Zuberi |
|
ACAP Working Paper No. 8 |
|
|
|
ABSTRACT |
|
|
| This study presents an assessment of fertility levels and trends in South Africa since the early 1980s. The decline of fertility in South Africa prior the end of apartheid is largely unknown. Because of its apartheid policies, the fertility transition in South Africa did not attract the attention of many researchers outside the country. However, since the end of the apartheid era, unraveling the age and parity structure of the country’s fertility transition has been of much interest to researchers in and outside of South Africa. Because data on fertility change are somewhat less reliable and largely unavailable, there is still speculation about what happened in South Africa. Despite the lack of credible data, there does seem to be widespread agreement that fertility began to decline in South Africa prior to the end of apartheid among all its major population groups. What is unknown is whether there has been a pervasive decline in fertility across all age groups and parities, a pattern that has been observed in countries such as Botswana, Kenya, and Zimbabwe. This study attempts to fill the gaps that exist in South Africa’s demographic history by focusing on contemporary features of South African fertility. The study uses the 1996 South African population census. We estimate fertility levels and trends for South Africa in the period 1981-96 from reconstructed birth histories. We also examine marital and nonmarital fertility. The paper shows that fertility has been declining in South Africa as a whole and among all the major population groups and across all age groups since the 1980s. |